|
Minnesota |
at |
Tampa Bay |
 |
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Kickoff at 10:00am (PT) |
 |
|
5-4 |
Current Record |
6-3 |
|
23.35 (16) |
Win Grade
(pos) |
30.91 (10) |
|
101.51 (18) |
Real Points (pos) |
169.46 (6) |
|
+3.5 |
Vegas Line |
-3.5 |
|
+16 |
ITN Line |
-16 |
|
12.7 |
ITN Line minus Vegas Line (Margin) |
12.7 |
|
23% |
Chance of winning this game |
77% |
|
160 |
Opening ML odds |
-190 |
|
$60.94 |
ML - Expected value on a $100 bet |
$116.86 |
|
25% |
Chance to cover spread at TB 2.5 |
75% |
|
36% |
Chance to cover spread at TB 3.5 |
64% |
|
39% |
Chance to cover spread at TB 4.5 |
61% |
|
$68.61 |
ATS - Expected value on a $100 bet |
$122.30 |
|
38.5 |
Vegas Over/Under total |
38.5 |
|
55 |
ITN Over/Under total |
55 |
|
16 |
ITN O/U minus Vegas O/U (Margin) |
16 |
|
Team Report |
Injuries |
Team Report |
|
Many bettors will have Minnesota’s 220 yard rushing performance
against Green Bay fresh in their minds this week, and likely
will remember Tampa Bay having to come from way behind to defeat
struggling Kansas City two weeks ago. The combination of these
recent results points towards heavy public favor of Minnesota in
this matchup, but we are here to tell you do not be so deceived
by these more recent events. First and foremost both of our
rankings agree that Tampa Bay is a better team, and that is
before factoring in that Tampa will be playing at home. Next
consider that the aforementioned above par rushing performance by
Minnesota came at home, and against a very porous Green Bay run
defense. Tampa Bay gives up 55 fewer yards per game on the
ground than the Packers do, and adding to the bad news for the
Minnesota offense is that the Tampa Bay secondary is almost as
talented as the one that picked off Frerotte 3 times and single
handedly kept Green Bay in the game. As for the Tampa offense,
yes it is a bit banged up but fortunately for them they do have
reasonable depth on their roster. Expect RB’s Graham and Dunn to
have a modest day, but for Garcia and his WR’s to pick up the
slack moving the football, opening up some space for the ground
game to put some points on the board in the second half and lead
their team to another solid home victory. |
|
Baltimore |
at |
NY
Giants |
 |
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Kickoff at 10:00am (PT) |
 |
|
6-3 |
Current Record |
8-1 |
|
38.97 (4) |
Win Grade
(pos) |
51.26 (3) |
|
128.89 (11) |
Real Points (pos) |
221.68 (3) |
|
+6.5 |
Vegas Line |
-6.5 |
|
+16 |
ITN Line |
-16 |
|
9.4 |
ITN Line minus Vegas Line (Margin) |
9.4 |
|
23% |
Chance of winning this game |
77% |
|
250 |
Opening ML odds |
-300 |
|
$82.03 |
ML - Expected value on a $100 bet |
$102.08 |
|
41% |
Chance to cover spread at NYG 5.5 |
59% |
|
41% |
Chance to cover spread at NYG 6.5 |
59% |
|
42% |
Chance to cover spread at NYG 7.5 |
58% |
|
$77.56 |
ATS - Expected value on a $100 bet |
$113.35 |
|
41.5 |
Vegas Over/Under total |
41.5 |
|
65 |
ITN Over/Under total |
65 |
|
23 |
ITN O/U minus Vegas O/U (Margin) |
23 |
|
Team Report |
Injuries |
Team Report |
|
|
|
Oakland |
at |
Miami |
 |
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Kickoff at 10:00am (PT) |
 |
|
2-7 |
Current Record |
5-4 |
|
9.72 (26) |
Win Grade
(pos) |
29.13 (13) |
|
37.9 (26) |
Real Points (pos) |
142.64 (9) |
|
+10.5 |
Vegas Line |
-10.5 |
|
+14 |
ITN Line |
-14 |
|
3.5 |
ITN Line minus Vegas Line (Margin) |
3.5 |
|
26% |
Chance of winning this game |
74% |
|
450 |
Opening ML odds |
-550 |
|
$145.28 |
ML - Expected value on a $100 bet |
$86.96 |
|
66% |
Chance to cover spread at MIA 9.5 |
34% |
|
70% |
Chance to cover spread at MIA 10.5 |
30% |
|
72% |
Chance to cover spread at MIA 11.5 |
28% |
|
$133.28 |
ATS - Expected value on a $100 bet |
$57.63 |
|
38.5 |
Vegas Over/Under total |
38.5 |
|
40 |
ITN Over/Under total |
40 |
|
2 |
ITN O/U minus Vegas O/U (Margin) |
2 |
|
Team Report |
Injuries |
Team Report |
|
|
|
New Orleans |
at |
Kansas City |
 |
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Kickoff at 10:00am (PT) |
 |
|
4-5 |
Current Record |
1-8 |
|
17.69 (23) |
Win Grade
(pos) |
4.19 (30) |
|
68.44 (24) |
Real Points (pos) |
18.13 (30) |
|
-5.5 |
Vegas Line |
+5.5 |
|
-1 |
ITN Line |
+1 |
|
4 |
ITN Line minus Vegas Line (Margin) |
4 |
|
57% |
Chance of winning this game |
43% |
|
-240 |
Opening ML odds |
200 |
|
$80.95 |
ML - Expected value on a $100 bet |
$128.57 |
|
38% |
Chance to cover spread at NO -6.5 |
62% |
|
40% |
Chance to cover spread at NO -5.5 |
60% |
|
40% |
Chance to cover spread at NO -4.5 |
60% |
|
$77.27 |
ATS - Expected value on a $100 bet |
$113.64 |
|
50 |
Vegas Over/Under total |
50 |
|
24 |
ITN Over/Under total |
24 |
|
-26 |
ITN O/U minus Vegas O/U (Margin) |
-26 |
|
Team Report |
Injuries |
Team Report |
|
|
|
Detroit |
at |
Carolina |
 |
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Kickoff at 10:00am (PT) |
 |
|
0-9 |
Current Record |
7-2 |
|
0 (32) |
Win Grade
(pos) |
31.36 (9) |
|
1.26 (32) |
Real Points (pos) |
178.23 (5) |
|
+14 |
Vegas Line |
-14 |
|
+18 |
ITN Line |
-18 |
|
12.2 |
ITN Line minus Vegas Line (Margin) |
12.2 |
|
17% |
Chance of winning this game |
83% |
|
700 |
Opening ML odds |
-1000 |
|
$133.33 |
ML - Expected value on a $100 bet |
$91.67 |
|
50% |
Chance to cover spread at CAR 13 |
50% |
|
52% |
Chance to cover spread at CAR 14 |
48% |
|
58% |
Chance to cover spread at CAR 15 |
42% |
|
$98.64 |
ATS - Expected value on a $100 bet |
$92.27 |
|
40 |
Vegas Over/Under total |
40 |
|
44 |
ITN Over/Under total |
44 |
|
4 |
ITN O/U minus Vegas O/U (Margin) |
4 |
|
Team Report |
Injuries |
Team Report |
|
As if the records of each team in this
matchup weren’t enough of an indication as to how likely it
would be for Detroit to pull off a road win, looking into our
rankings really slams the door shut on Detroit being able to
earn its first win of the season. The visiting team is ranked
32nd by both Win Grade (team fundamentals) and Real Points
(strength of schedule). Now normally it is common for the 32nd
ranked team in the league to appear underrated, or to be
underplaying their abilities (i.e. leaving a lot of points on
the field), as there is nowhere to go but up. Detroit though has
almost no hint of either, entrenching them in the gutter of the
rankings, and really describes how poorly this team has played
over the course of the season. This is not to say that Detroit
will not bring everything to the table, it is more of a
testament as to how bad of a spot this for them. Carolina comes
off of a hard fought victory at Oakland, which makes it hard to
believe Carolina will be caught looking past this game.
Hampering Detroit even more is that it will have been exactly 3
weeks since Carolina last played in front of their home crowd.
The fans would be chomping at the bit to cheer for their
division leading team even if they were playing a Division 1-AA
college team. The only hope for Detroit to keep this game close
is a barrage of turnovers by Carolina, and that is highly
unlikely with the offense coming off of its worst turnover
performance of the year. Look for the home defense to deliver a
rude and punishing greeting to the visiting team, handing
Delhomme and company excellent field position to build a large
early lead upon, from where they will have little problems
cruising to a victory. |
|
Philadelphia |
at |
Cincinnati |
 |
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Kickoff at 10:00am (PT) |
 |
|
5-4 |
Current Record |
1-8 |
|
29.02 (14) |
Win Grade
(pos) |
3.47 (31) |
|
103.96 (17) |
Real Points (pos) |
23 (29) |
|
-9 |
Vegas Line |
+9 |
|
-12 |
ITN Line |
+12 |
|
-3.2 |
ITN Line minus Vegas Line (Margin) |
-3.2 |
|
58% |
Chance of winning this game |
43% |
|
-425 |
Opening ML odds |
350 |
|
$71.03 |
ML - Expected value on a $100 bet |
$191.25 |
|
23% |
Chance to cover spread at PHI -10 |
78% |
|
25% |
Chance to cover spread at PHI -9 |
75% |
|
25% |
Chance to cover spread at PHI -8 |
75% |
|
$47.73 |
ATS - Expected value on a $100 bet |
$143.18 |
|
42 |
Vegas Over/Under total |
42 |
|
32 |
ITN Over/Under total |
32 |
|
-10 |
ITN O/U minus Vegas O/U (Margin) |
-10 |
|
Team Report |
Injuries |
Team Report |
|
Despite being almost a two touchdown favorite here, there isn’t
a high amount of confidence in Philadelphia actually pulling out
the win. The rankings see too much volatility in Philadelphia’s
play, and even more so in Cincinnati’s. Moreover, Cincinnati has
shown a knack of hanging tough with NFC East opponents already
this year, taking New York to overtime and staying with Dallas
until the last few minutes of the 4th quarter. With Westbrook
still not looking 100% the Philadelphia offense has had to rely
on McNabb and the aerial attack, and the strength of the host
team is defending the pass. In the end we see Philadelphia
pulling out the win because of how erratic the Cincinnati
offense is, especially running the football. Look for a low
scoring game with both teams struggling to move the ball
effectively and rarely finding the end zone. |
|
Chicago |
at |
Green Bay |
 |
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Kickoff at 10:00am (PT) |
 |
|
5-4 |
Current Record |
4-5 |
|
32.51 (7) |
Win Grade
(pos) |
26.28 (15) |
|
93.61 (21) |
Real Points (pos) |
61.62 (25) |
|
+4 |
Vegas Line |
-4 |
|
+1 |
ITN Line |
-1 |
|
-3.3 |
ITN Line minus Vegas Line (Margin) |
-3.3 |
|
34% |
Chance of winning this game |
66% |
|
180 |
Opening ML odds |
-210 |
|
$96.32 |
ML - Expected value on a $100 bet |
$96.84 |
|
36% |
Chance to cover spread at GB 3 |
64% |
|
50% |
Chance to cover spread at GB 4 |
50% |
|
51% |
Chance to cover spread at GB 5 |
49% |
|
$94.69 |
ATS - Expected value on a $100 bet |
$96.22 |
|
45 |
Vegas Over/Under total |
45 |
|
38 |
ITN Over/Under total |
38 |
|
-7 |
ITN O/U minus Vegas O/U (Margin) |
-7 |
|
Team Report |
Injuries |
Team Report |
|
Both teams enter this game coming off of tough losses, and for
Green Bay it is actually 2 tough losses in a row (overtime loss
at Tennessee in week 9). Even in years when the gap between
these two teams has been wider, games have been decided by very
few points and this one should shape up to be no different.
While both Win Grade (team fundamentals) and Real Points
(strength of schedule) favor Green Bay at home, the former sees
the host team as fairly overrated. The secondary has almost
single handedly kept their season afloat, but counting on
interceptions and near perfect play from half your defense is
not a solid foundation for winning games. Essentially this game
comes down to who executes the better game plan. Chicago has a
surefire advantage running the ball against the Green Bay
defense, and should try their best to exploit that, especially
if Grossman starts again. Meanwhile Green Bay's QB Rodgers should have a
much better performance against the Chicago secondary and
defensive line than he did last week against Minnesota, and Green Bay would be equally wise to keep the
ball in the air for the majority of the game. At home in a must
win game to keep their NFC North division title hopes alive, we
see Green Bay making a few crucial plays down the stretch to win
a very hard fought game. |