|
Minnesota |
at |
Tampa Bay |
 |
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Kickoff at 10:00am (PT) |
 |
|
5-4 |
Current Record |
6-3 |
|
23.35 (16) |
Win Grade
(pos) |
30.91 (10) |
|
101.51 (18) |
Real Points (pos) |
169.46 (6) |
|
+3.5 |
Vegas Line |
-3.5 |
|
+16 |
ITN Line |
-16 |
|
12.7 |
ITN Line minus Vegas Line (Margin) |
12.7 |
|
23% |
Chance of winning this game |
77% |
|
160 |
Opening ML odds |
-190 |
|
$60.94 |
ML - Expected value on a $100 bet |
$116.86 |
|
25% |
Chance to cover spread at TB 2.5 |
75% |
|
36% |
Chance to cover spread at TB 3.5 |
64% |
|
39% |
Chance to cover spread at TB 4.5 |
61% |
|
$68.61 |
ATS - Expected value
on a $100 bet |
$122.30 |
|
38.5 |
Vegas Over/Under total |
38.5 |
|
55 |
ITN Over/Under total |
55 |
|
16 |
ITN O/U minus Vegas O/U (Margin) |
16 |
|
Team Report |
Injuries |
Team Report |
|
Many bettors will have Minnesota’s 220 yard rushing performance
against Green Bay fresh in their minds this week, and likely
will remember Tampa Bay having to come from way behind to defeat
struggling Kansas City two weeks ago. The combination of these
recent results points towards heavy public favor of Minnesota in
this matchup, but we are here to tell you do not be so deceived
by these more recent events. First and foremost both of our
rankings agree that Tampa Bay is a better team, and that is
before factoring in that Tampa will be playing at home. Next
consider that the aforementioned above par rushing performance
by Minnesota came at home, and against a very porous Green Bay
run defense. Tampa Bay gives up 55 fewer yards per game on the
ground than the Packers do, and adding to the bad news for the
Minnesota offense is that the Tampa Bay secondary is almost as
talented as the one that picked off Frerotte 3 times and single
handedly kept Green Bay in the game. As for the Tampa offense,
yes it is a bit banged up but fortunately for them they do have
reasonable depth on their roster. Expect RB’s Graham and Dunn to
have a modest day, but for Garcia and his WR’s to pick up the
slack moving the football, opening up some space for the ground
game to put some points on the board in the second half and lead
their team to another solid home victory. |
|
Baltimore |
at |
NY
Giants |
 |
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Kickoff at 10:00am (PT) |
 |
|
6-3 |
Current Record |
8-1 |
|
38.97 (4) |
Win Grade
(pos) |
51.26 (3) |
|
128.89 (11) |
Real Points (pos) |
221.68 (3) |
|
+6.5 |
Vegas Line |
-6.5 |
|
+16 |
ITN Line |
-16 |
|
9.4 |
ITN Line minus Vegas Line (Margin) |
9.4 |
|
23% |
Chance of winning this game |
77% |
|
250 |
Opening ML odds |
-300 |
|
$82.03 |
ML - Expected value on a $100 bet |
$102.08 |
|
41% |
Chance to cover spread at NYG 5.5 |
59% |
|
41% |
Chance to cover spread at NYG 6.5 |
59% |
|
42% |
Chance to cover spread at NYG 7.5 |
58% |
|
$77.56 |
ATS - Expected value
on a $100 bet |
$113.35 |
|
41.5 |
Vegas Over/Under total |
41.5 |
|
65 |
ITN Over/Under total |
65 |
|
23 |
ITN O/U minus Vegas O/U (Margin) |
23 |
|
Team Report |
Injuries |
Team Report |
|
|
|
Oakland |
at |
Miami |
 |
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Kickoff at 10:00am (PT) |
 |
|
2-7 |
Current Record |
5-4 |
|
9.72 (26) |
Win Grade
(pos) |
29.13 (13) |
|
37.9 (26) |
Real Points (pos) |
142.64 (9) |
|
+10.5 |
Vegas Line |
-10.5 |
|
+14 |
ITN Line |
-14 |
|
3.5 |
ITN Line minus Vegas Line (Margin) |
3.5 |
|
26% |
Chance of winning this game |
74% |
|
450 |
Opening ML odds |
-550 |
|
$145.28 |
ML - Expected value on a $100 bet |
$86.96 |
|
66% |
Chance to cover spread at MIA 9.5 |
34% |
|
70% |
Chance to cover spread at MIA 10.5 |
30% |
|
72% |
Chance to cover spread at MIA 11.5 |
28% |
|
$133.28 |
ATS - Expected value
on a $100 bet |
$57.63 |
|
38.5 |
Vegas Over/Under total |
38.5 |
|
40 |
ITN Over/Under total |
40 |
|
2 |
ITN O/U minus Vegas O/U (Margin) |
2 |
|
Team Report |
Injuries |
Team Report |
|
|
|
New Orleans |
at |
Kansas City |
 |
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Kickoff at 10:00am (PT) |
 |
|
4-5 |
Current Record |
1-8 |
|
17.69 (23) |
Win Grade
(pos) |
4.19 (30) |
|
68.44 (24) |
Real Points (pos) |
18.13 (30) |
|
-5.5 |
Vegas Line |
+5.5 |
|
-1 |
ITN Line |
+1 |
|
4 |
ITN Line minus Vegas Line (Margin) |
4 |
|
57% |
Chance of winning this game |
43% |
|
-240 |
Opening ML odds |
200 |
|
$80.95 |
ML - Expected value on a $100 bet |
$128.57 |
|
38% |
Chance to cover spread at NO -6.5 |
62% |
|
40% |
Chance to cover spread at NO -5.5 |
60% |
|
40% |
Chance to cover spread at NO -4.5 |
60% |
|
$77.27 |
ATS - Expected value
on a $100 bet |
$113.64 |
|
50 |
Vegas Over/Under total |
50 |
|
24 |
ITN Over/Under total |
24 |
|
-26 |
ITN O/U minus Vegas O/U (Margin) |
-26 |
|
Team Report |
Injuries |
Team Report |
|
|
|
Detroit |
at |
Carolina |
 |
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Kickoff at 10:00am (PT) |
 |
|
0-9 |
Current Record |
7-2 |
|
0 (32) |
Win Grade
(pos) |
31.36 (9) |
|
1.26 (32) |
Real Points (pos) |
178.23 (5) |
|
+14 |
Vegas Line |
-14 |
|
+18 |
ITN Line |
-18 |
|
12.2 |
ITN Line minus Vegas Line (Margin) |
12.2 |
|
17% |
Chance of winning this game |
83% |
|
700 |
Opening ML odds |
-1000 |
|
$133.33 |
ML - Expected value on a $100 bet |
$91.67 |
|
50% |
Chance to cover spread at CAR 13 |
50% |
|
52% |
Chance to cover spread at CAR 14 |
48% |
|
58% |
Chance to cover spread at CAR 15 |
42% |
|
$98.64 |
ATS - Expected value
on a $100 bet |
$92.27 |
|
40 |
Vegas Over/Under total |
40 |
|
44 |
ITN Over/Under total |
44 |
|
4 |
ITN O/U minus Vegas O/U (Margin) |
4 |
|
Team Report |
Injuries |
Team Report |
|
As if the records of each team in this
matchup weren’t enough of an indication as to how likely it
would be for Detroit to pull off a road win, looking into our
rankings really slams the door shut on Detroit being able to
earn its first win of the season. The visiting team is ranked
32nd by both Win Grade (team fundamentals) and Real Points
(strength of schedule). Now normally it is common for the 32nd
ranked team in the league to appear underrated, or to be
underplaying their abilities (i.e. leaving a lot of points on
the field), as there is nowhere to go but up. Detroit though has
almost no hint of either, entrenching them in the gutter of the
rankings, and really describes how poorly this team has played
over the course of the season. This is not to say that Detroit
will not bring everything to the table, it is more of a
testament as to how bad of a spot this for them. Carolina comes
off of a hard fought victory at Oakland, which makes it hard to
believe Carolina will be caught looking past this game.
Hampering Detroit even more is that it will have been exactly 3
weeks since Carolina last played in front of their home crowd.
The fans would be chomping at the bit to cheer for their
division leading team even if they were playing a Division 1-AA
college team. The only hope for Detroit to keep this game close
is a barrage of turnovers by Carolina, and that is highly
unlikely with the offense coming off of its worst turnover
performance of the year. Look for the home defense to deliver a
rude and punishing greeting to the visiting team, handing
Delhomme and company excellent field position to build a large
early lead upon, from where they will have little problems
cruising to a victory. |
|
Philadelphia |
at |
Cincinnati |
 |
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Kickoff at 10:00am (PT) |
 |
|
5-4 |
Current Record |
1-8 |
|
29.02 (14) |
Win Grade
(pos) |
3.47 (31) |
|
103.96 (17) |
Real Points (pos) |
23 (29) |
|
-9 |
Vegas Line |
+9 |
|
-12 |
ITN Line |
+12 |
|
-3.2 |
ITN Line minus Vegas Line (Margin) |
-3.2 |
|
58% |
Chance of winning this game |
43% |
|
-425 |
Opening ML odds |
350 |
|
$71.03 |
ML - Expected value on a $100 bet |
$191.25 |
|
23% |
Chance to cover spread at PHI -10 |
78% |
|
25% |
Chance to cover spread at PHI -9 |
75% |
|
25% |
Chance to cover spread at PHI -8 |
75% |
|
$47.73 |
ATS - Expected value
on a $100 bet |
$143.18 |
|
42 |
Vegas Over/Under total |
42 |
|
32 |
ITN Over/Under total |
32 |
|
-10 |
ITN O/U minus Vegas O/U (Margin) |
-10 |
|
Team Report |
Injuries |
Team Report |
|
Despite being almost a two touchdown favorite here, there isn’t
a high amount of confidence in Philadelphia actually pulling out
the win. The rankings see too much volatility in Philadelphia’s
play, and even more so in Cincinnati’s. Moreover, Cincinnati has
shown a knack of hanging tough with NFC East opponents already
this year, taking New York to overtime and staying with Dallas
until the last few minutes of the 4th quarter. With Westbrook
still not looking 100% the Philadelphia offense has had to rely
on McNabb and the aerial attack, and the strength of the host
team is defending the pass. In the end we see Philadelphia
pulling out the win because of how erratic the Cincinnati
offense is, especially running the football. Look for a low
scoring game with both teams struggling to move the ball
effectively and rarely finding the end zone. |
|
Chicago |
at |
Green Bay |
 |
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Kickoff at 10:00am (PT) |
 |
|
5-4 |
Current Record |
4-5 |
|
32.51 (7) |
Win Grade
(pos) |
26.28 (15) |
|
93.61 (21) |
Real Points (pos) |
61.62 (25) |
|
+4 |
Vegas Line |
-4 |
|
+1 |
ITN Line |
-1 |
|
-3.3 |
ITN Line minus Vegas Line (Margin) |
-3.3 |
|
34% |
Chance of winning this game |
66% |
|
180 |
Opening ML odds |
-210 |
|
$96.32 |
ML - Expected value on a $100 bet |
$96.84 |
|
36% |
Chance to cover spread at GB 3 |
64% |
|
50% |
Chance to cover spread at GB 4 |
50% |
|
51% |
Chance to cover spread at GB 5 |
49% |
|
$94.69 |
ATS - Expected value
on a $100 bet |
$96.22 |
|
45 |
Vegas Over/Under total |
45 |
|
38 |
ITN Over/Under total |
38 |
|
-7 |
ITN O/U minus Vegas O/U (Margin) |
-7 |
|
Team Report |
Injuries |
Team Report |
|
Both teams enter this game coming off of tough losses, and for
Green Bay it is actually 2 tough losses in a row (overtime loss
at Tennessee in week 9). Even in years when the gap between
these two teams has been wider, games have been decided by very
few points and this one should shape up to be no different.
While both Win Grade (team fundamentals) and Real Points
(strength of schedule) favor Green Bay at home, the former sees
the host team as fairly overrated. The secondary has almost
single handedly kept their season afloat, but counting on
interceptions and near perfect play from half your defense is
not a solid foundation for winning games. Essentially this game
comes down to who executes the better game plan. Chicago has a
surefire advantage running the ball against the Green Bay
defense, and should try their best to exploit that, especially
if Grossman starts again. Meanwhile Green Bay's QB Rodgers
should have a much better performance against the Chicago
secondary and defensive line than he did last week against
Minnesota, and Green Bay would be equally wise to keep the ball
in the air for the majority of the game. At home in a must win
game to keep their NFC North division title hopes alive, we see
Green Bay making a few crucial plays down the stretch to win a
very hard fought game. |
|
Houston |
at |
Indianapolis |
 |
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Kickoff at 10:00am (PT) |
 |
|
3-6 |
Current Record |
5-4 |
|
11.13 (25) |
Win Grade
(pos) |
22.29 (19) |
|
32.6 (27) |
Real Points (pos) |
189.41 (4) |
|
+8.5 |
Vegas Line |
-8.5 |
|
+18 |
ITN Line |
-18 |
|
9.8 |
ITN Line minus Vegas Line (Margin) |
9.8 |
|
30% |
Chance of winning this game |
70% |
|
290 |
Opening ML odds |
-350 |
|
$118.70 |
ML - Expected value on a $100 bet |
$89.44 |
|
57% |
Chance to cover spread at IND 7.5 |
43% |
|
57% |
Chance to cover spread at IND 8.5 |
43% |
|
59% |
Chance to cover spread at IND 9.5 |
41% |
|
$107.91 |
ATS - Expected value
on a $100 bet |
$83.00 |
|
50.5 |
Vegas Over/Under total |
50.5 |
|
41 |
ITN Over/Under total |
41 |
|
-10 |
ITN O/U minus Vegas O/U (Margin) |
-10 |
|
Team Report |
Injuries |
Team Report |
|
|
|
St. Louis |
at |
San
Francisco |
 |
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Kickoff at 1:05pm (PT) |
 |
|
2-7 |
Current Record |
2-7 |
|
7.62 (29) |
Win Grade
(pos) |
8.31 (28) |
|
128.79 (12) |
Real Points (pos) |
15.98 (31) |
|
+6 |
Vegas Line |
-6 |
|
-15 |
ITN Line |
+15 |
|
-20.6 |
ITN Line minus Vegas Line (Margin) |
-20.6 |
|
58% |
Chance of winning this game |
42% |
|
245 |
Opening ML odds |
-290 |
|
$199.74 |
ML - Expected value on a $100 bet |
$56.62 |
|
79% |
Chance to cover spread at SF 5 |
21% |
|
84% |
Chance to cover spread at SF 6 |
16% |
|
89% |
Chance to cover spread at SF 7 |
11% |
|
$160.77 |
ATS - Expected value
on a $100 bet |
$30.14 |
|
44 |
Vegas Over/Under total |
44 |
|
30 |
ITN Over/Under total |
30 |
|
-14 |
ITN O/U minus Vegas O/U (Margin) |
-14 |
|
Team Report |
Injuries |
Team Report |
|
|
|
Arizona |
at |
Seattle |
 |
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Kickoff at 1:05pm (PT) |
 |
|
6-3 |
Current Record |
2-7 |
|
34.51 (6) |
Win Grade
(pos) |
8.64 (27) |
|
108.65 (16) |
Real Points (pos) |
23 (28) |
|
-3 |
Vegas Line |
+3 |
|
-12 |
ITN Line |
+12 |
|
-8.7 |
ITN Line minus Vegas Line (Margin) |
-8.7 |
|
58% |
Chance of winning this game |
43% |
|
-150 |
Opening ML odds |
130 |
|
$95.83 |
ML - Expected value on a $100 bet |
$97.75 |
|
45% |
Chance to cover spread at ARI -4 |
55% |
|
55% |
Chance to cover spread at ARI -3 |
45% |
|
58% |
Chance to cover spread at ARI -2 |
43% |
|
$105.00 |
ATS - Expected value
on a $100 bet |
$85.91 |
|
47.5 |
Vegas Over/Under total |
47.5 |
|
31 |
ITN Over/Under total |
31 |
|
-16 |
ITN O/U minus Vegas O/U (Margin) |
-16 |
|
Team Report |
Injuries |
Team Report |
|
The rankings on Arizona this week show them as being fairly
overrated by Win Grade (team fundamentals), which makes sense
given the weaker competition they have faced. For teams like
Arizona (that have a higher Win Grade ranking than Real Points),
this usually presents a problem when they face a team ranked in
the top half of the league, especially on the road. Seattle
however, is firmly ranked in the bottom of the league in both of
our rankings, and is not a real serious threat to knock off the
division leader. The return of QB M. Hasselbeck and WR D. Branch
to the Seattle lineup does add some uncertainty to the mix, but
ultimately the deciding factor in this game will be how
Seattle’s secondary responds to the aerial attack brought on by
Arizona. Look for Warner and company to have another big day in
the air, and to be able to outgun the benefits brought on by
Seattle’s returning players. |
|
Tennessee |
at |
Jacksonville |
 |
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Kickoff at 1:05pm (PT) |
 |
|
9-0 |
Current Record |
4-5 |
|
61.29 (1) |
Win Grade
(pos) |
23 (17) |
|
252.47 (1) |
Real Points (pos) |
85.9 (22) |
|
-3 |
Vegas Line |
+3 |
|
-7 |
ITN Line |
+7 |
|
-28.2 |
ITN Line minus Vegas Line (Margin) |
-28.2 |
|
71% |
Chance of winning this game |
29% |
|
-150 |
Opening ML odds |
130 |
|
$119.05 |
ML - Expected value on a $100 bet |
$65.71 |
|
51% |
Chance to cover spread at TEN -4 |
49% |
|
67% |
Chance to cover spread at TEN -3 |
33% |
|
69% |
Chance to cover spread at TEN -2 |
31% |
|
$128.57 |
ATS - Expected value
on a $100 bet |
$62.34 |
|
39.5 |
Vegas Over/Under total |
39.5 |
|
55 |
ITN Over/Under total |
55 |
|
16 |
ITN O/U minus Vegas O/U (Margin) |
16 |
|
Team Report |
Injuries |
Team Report |
|
|
|
San Diego |
at |
Pittsburgh |
 |
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Kickoff at 1:15pm (PT) |
 |
|
4-5 |
Current Record |
6-3 |
|
19.49 (20) |
Win Grade
(pos) |
29.7 (12) |
|
84.02 (23) |
Real Points (pos) |
235.21 (2) |
|
+5 |
Vegas Line |
-5 |
|
+17 |
ITN Line |
-17 |
|
11.6 |
ITN Line minus Vegas Line (Margin) |
11.6 |
|
27% |
Chance of winning this game |
73% |
|
190 |
Opening ML odds |
-230 |
|
$78.64 |
ML - Expected value on a $100 bet |
$104.57 |
|
47% |
Chance to cover spread at PIT 4 |
53% |
|
49% |
Chance to cover spread at PIT 5 |
51% |
|
51% |
Chance to cover spread at PIT 6 |
49% |
|
$93.84 |
ATS - Expected value
on a $100 bet |
$97.07 |
|
43 |
Vegas Over/Under total |
43 |
|
51 |
ITN Over/Under total |
51 |
|
8 |
ITN O/U minus Vegas O/U (Margin) |
8 |
|
Team Report |
Injuries |
Team Report |
|
This is a favorable matchup
for Pittsburgh. Our rankings easily see them as the
superior team, especially while playing at home.
Most significant in this matchup is how both
rankings strongly agree that San Diego belongs
amongst the bottom 12 teams in the league, which
really weakens any chance the visitors have of
pulling off a big road upset. Pittsburgh’s recent
struggles have come directly from turnovers, and the
32nd ranked San Diego secondary should be just the
cure for Roethlisberger’s interception habits. On
the other side of the ball Pittsburgh matches up
just as well. Tomlinson and the O-line have
struggled to move the ball most of the year, and it
is unlikely they will find success against the
stingy Pittsburgh defensive line. This will once
again put all the pressure on Rivers to put points
on the board and win the game, a formula that has
already proven to be unsuccessful on several
occasions this year. |
|
Dallas |
at |
Washington |
 |
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Kickoff at 5:15pm (PT) |
 |
|
5-4 |
Current Record |
6-3 |
|
19.4 (21) |
Win Grade
(pos) |
59.13 (2) |
|
138.79 (10) |
Real Points (pos) |
156.26 (7) |
|
-2 |
Vegas Line |
+2 |
|
+6 |
ITN Line |
-6 |
|
8.3 |
ITN Line minus Vegas Line (Margin) |
8.3 |
|
30% |
Chance of winning this game |
70% |
|
-130 |
Opening ML odds |
110 |
|
$53.27 |
ML - Expected value on a $100 bet |
$146.77 |
|
24% |
Chance to cover spread at DAL -3 |
76% |
|
28% |
Chance to cover spread at DAL -2 |
72% |
|
28% |
Chance to cover spread at DAL -1 |
72% |
|
$53.37 |
ATS - Expected value
on a $100 bet |
$137.54 |
|
43.5 |
Vegas Over/Under total |
43.5 |
|
52 |
ITN Over/Under total |
52 |
|
8 |
ITN O/U minus Vegas O/U (Margin) |
8 |
|
Team Report |
Injuries |
Team Report |
|
This is a huge game for both teams, but especially so for
Dallas, who with a loss would be in serious jeopardy of missing
the playoffs. Looking at the rankings of both teams we find
quite a bit of uncertainty as to exactly where each team stands.
This does open the door for our perceived underdog, Dallas, to
pull off a road upset, but a problem for the visiting team
arises when looking for specific matchups where they have a
distinct advantage over their hosts. Washington has the 6th best
run defense and the 8th best pass defense and shouldn’t have too
many problems holding the injured Dallas offense in check.
Washington’s own offense arrives a little battered and far from
top form, but we expect that much like in the earlier meeting
between these two teams, the offense will be able to mix it up
effectively and churn out some clock eating scoring drives,
keeping the defense rested on the sidelines and their team ahead
on the scoreboard. |
|
Cleveland |
at |
Buffalo |
 |
Sunday, November 17, 2008
Kickoff at 5:30pm (PT) |
 |
|
3-6 |
Current Record |
5-4 |
|
14.46 (24) |
Win Grade
(pos) |
22.32 (18) |
|
100.23 (19) |
Real Points (pos) |
94.49 (20) |
|
+5 |
Vegas Line |
-5 |
|
+6 |
ITN Line |
-6 |
|
0.8 |
ITN Line minus Vegas Line (Margin) |
0.8 |
|
30% |
Chance of winning this game |
70% |
|
190 |
Opening ML odds |
-230 |
|
$87.31 |
ML - Expected value on a $100 bet |
$100.28 |
|
42% |
Chance to cover spread at BUF 4 |
58% |
|
44% |
Chance to cover spread at BUF 5 |
56% |
|
47% |
Chance to cover spread at BUF 6 |
53% |
|
$84.16 |
ATS - Expected value
on a $100 bet |
$106.74 |
|
42.5 |
Vegas Over/Under total |
42.5 |
|
46 |
ITN Over/Under total |
46 |
|
3 |
ITN O/U minus Vegas O/U (Margin) |
3 |
|
Team Report |
Injuries |
Team Report |
|
Given how poor Buffalo has been playing of
late and how far they have fallen in the rankings it is no
surprise that our system does not see the favorite in this
matchup as overrated or overplaying their abilities. Their
opponent, Cleveland, comes into this game having blown back to
back 4th quarter leads, which should prompt our system to see
them as underrated. Surprisingly, when we dug into the stats we
saw that Cleveland had left some potential on the field, but it
was far less than one would think. Ultimately Cleveland lacks
the power and matchup potential to have a significant shot at
pulling out the upset. Buffalo is desperate for a win and the
Browns defense provides an appealing opportunity for them to
right the ship. Look for Edwards and company to really tone down
the turnovers allowing the team’s overall solid fundamentals to
lead to a win much like it did for them in the early part of the
season. |