Ranking and Prediction Comparisons
We want to give our visitors an opportunity to see why we rank teams
the way we do, and how our method creates better NFL picks. A little
shop and compare before you buy. We tried to find some of our
competitors historical football rankings (or prediction record) to post here along
with ours, but not surprisingly none could be found. We have no
problem showing ours. So instead we will show you comparisons with several common
football ranking methods in use.
We chose to work with the NFL post season, since the games are more
memorable, and it's enjoyable to rank the all time great NFL teams. Here
is what we compared our football rankings and NFL picks against.
- Scoring Defense
- Scoring Offense
- Averaged Offense/Defense
- Win/Loss Record
- Margin of Victory
There are several sites that advertise making picks by using
'backwards odds handicapping' or something similarly named. We are not a
fan of basing our predictions on something other than actual football
stats/play. Nor are we a fan of waiting each week to see how many of
these 'special' games show up. We base our picks on football, and make them
for every game, not just the convenient ones.
What we did in our comparisons was take the number one team from the AFC and the NFC in
each category at the end of the regular season. Those two teams were
determined to be the most likely super bowl matchup. The team ranked
higher in its category was determined to be the predicted super bowl
winner. We then kept track of how many post season wins each category
achieved, along with the number of correct super bowl picks. We used data
starting with 1990 and worked through the 2007 season.
So for a quick example we will look at the 2007 season. For scoring
defense, Indianapolis had the best scoring defense in the AFC, while
Tampa Bay had the best in the NFC. So by scoring defense they were the
predicted super bowl matchup. Indianapolis had the better scoring
defense of the two, so they were the predicted super bowl winner. The
same format was followed for scoring offense and all the other
categories.
Scoring Offense Leaders
|
Year |
Team |
Conference |
PTS/PG |
|
2007 |
Patriots |
AFC |
36.81 |
|
2007 |
Cowboys |
NFC |
28.44 |
|
2007 |
Colts |
AFC |
28.13 |
|
2007 |
Packers |
NFC |
27.19 |
|
2007 |
Chargers |
AFC |
25.75 |
Scoring Defense Leaders
|
Year |
Team |
Conference |
PTS/PG |
|
2007 |
Colts |
AFC |
16.38 |
|
2007 |
Steelers |
AFC |
16.81 |
|
2007 |
Buccaneers |
NFC |
16.88 |
|
2007 |
Patriots |
AFC |
17.13 |
|
2007 |
Chargers |
AFC |
17.75 |
What you will see about our ranking system
is that it allows us to determine what the most likely factors to affect
the outcome will be (rushing, passing, home field advantage, etc). The
rankings are the base of each prediction, and then we use that
information to analyze specific matchups before determining a winner. So
not only does our system of ranking teams beat all of the others, we
then look deeper into each matchup to create a truly dominant method of
making picks. Take a look.
Post Season Prediction Record 1990-2007 (18 seasons)
| Method |
Scoring Defense |
Scoring Offense |
Best Record |
Averaged Off/Def |
Margin of Victory |
ITN Combined Ranking |
ITN Combined with matchup analysis |
| Results |
|
Post Season Wins |
32 |
45 |
56 |
52 |
56 |
60 |
72 |
|
Correct Super Bowl Champions |
5 |
5 |
4 |
6 |
6 |
8 |
12 |
|
Perfect Super Bowl Matchups |
0 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
3 |
8 |
Think about it. We have a history of picking the correct super bowl
champion at the end of the regular season 67% of the time. Most of those
teams were getting at least 5-2 odds to win it all, many of them at 4-1
or greater. Even at 5-2 odds, ITN's pick will have an expected value of
$167 on a $100 bet. That's money in your pocket. Regular season, post
season, future bets, ITN creates stats that win. Even if you already
make a profit with your sports wagering, ITN's unique rankings and methods will improve
your betting record.