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NFL Rankings

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NFL week 4 - Gaining perspective

Real Points, our strength of schedule ranking system finally joins the group this week, bringing a whole new perspective to the field of 32 NFL teams. The rankings last week took some heat over the placement of New England and Indianapolis, and we know how those teams fared in week 3. The rankings for this week are sure to come under fire again, but that is part of the fun of it. Before you get too in too big of a tiff though, remember a team's record is a very poor method of predicting whether they will win their next game or not. Take a look at these teams and where they are ranked and you will understand a little bit about how Real Points works:

  • Arizona:
    • Won at SF (2-1)
    • Won vs MIA (1-2)
    • Lost at WAS (2-1)
  • Buffalo:
    • Won vs SEA (1-2)
    • Won at JAC (1-2)
    • Won vs OAK (1-2)
  • NY Giants:
    • Won vs WAS (2-1)
    • Won at STL (0-3)
    • Won vs CIN (0-3)
  • Tennessee:
    • Won vs JAC (1-2)
    • Won at CIN (0-3)
    • Won vs HOU (0-2)

Our Pick Six continues to come through as expected. It finished a nice 4-2 and came home with a profit again, making it three consecutive weeks of finishing in the black. If you don't have a membership it's not too late to pick up a weekly or season subscription. The weekly subscriptions are getting still being offered for great values so don't miss out on another winning week with ITN!

See the results for last week's Pick Six

  Team ITN-CB Rec WG RP Notes
1 Cowboys 1.63 3-0 23.6 (12) 39.7 (1)  Real Points joins the party and gives Win Grade a big slap in the back of the head while saying "Wake up! Dallas 12th? Do we need to check your algebra again?"
2 Cardinals 1.55 2-1 24.3 (7) 36.9 (2)  The two ranking systems agree with the common eye. Something just isn't right about them being number 2. But until they go down underestimate them at your own risk.
3 Bills 1.37 3-0 33.2 (1) 18.7 (7)  Great comeback against Oakland, and now they have shown they can play with a lead or come from behind and win games. No question they are the best team in the AFC East right now.
4 Giants 1.08 3-0 32.9 (2) 12.9 (12)  We think the Giants are right where they want to be. The team is sound on both sides of the ball, and might have cured whatever ailment was preventing them from winning at home last year.
5 Broncos 1.07 3-0 26.8 (5) 22.3 (5)  When should a team be concerned? How about when you average over 300 yards per game throwing the football but are still being out gained through the air by your opponents.
6 Eagles 0.71 2-1 24.1 (8) 18.5 (9)  Everyone is sweating the injury to Westbrook. We aren't. McNabb is capable of winning games for this team, and there is no doubt the defense can keep them in games when the O struggles.
7 Panthers 0.67 2-1 23.7 (11) 18.5 (10)  This team has pulled out two strong victories while converting just 26% of its third downs. The rest of the NFC South should be praying they don't fix that.
8 Buccaneers 0.64 2-1 19.9 (16) 23.5 (4)  TB rushing attack: Averages 5.5 yards per carry, has big play capabilities (68 yard touchdown run is longest in the league), and zero lost fumbles. Teams with +5 yards per carry are averaging over 90 rushing attempts. The Bucs? Only 65 attempts. Are we the only ones scratching our heads?
9 Redskins 0.63 2-1 22.9 (13) 18.7 (8)  Washington leads the league in turnover ratio and is above the league average in rushing and passing offense, but they are more than a full point below the league average in scoring. That is not a very effective use of their resources, and will need to improve upon that to stay in contention in the NFC East.
10 Dolphins 0.52 1-2 17.2 (17) 25.3 (3)  There is no doubt that Ronnie Brown transforms this team. Even before he led the upset the numbers thought they were a capable team, so don't think what you saw Sunday was a fluke.  
11 Titans 0.43 3-0 29.1 (3) 4.4 (21)  What are the rankings trying to say putting a 3-0 team in 11th place in the league? The way you have played so far works great against teams like Cincinnati and Houston, but it does not inspire confidence for matchups against the real teams in the league.
12 49ers 0.39 2-1 26.1 (6) 8.3 (15)  Did a nice job dispatching Detroit last week and kept pace with Arizona in the NFC West. However, the defense will need to figure some things out before this Sunday's matchup in New Orleans.
13 Steelers 0.19 2-1 28.5 (4) 3.7 (22)  When we said they could win games relying on their run game, we were thinking of a 2 person canoe analogy: Run attack in the front doing the heavy pulling, passing game in the back doing most of the steering. Right now it looks like the passing game lost its oar 2 miles up stream and is trying to steer and paddle with its hands.
14 Patriots 0.19 2-1 23.7 (10) 7.7 (16)  Sure it wasn't pretty, but did everyone think Miami was going to stay horrible forever? We doubt Bellicheck is letting his Patriots panic, and we certainly don't think Moss will be a non-factor forever either.
15 Packers 0.1 2-1 23.9 (9) 5.5 (18)  They didn't look to good defending their home turf on Sunday night. Not being able to run the ball in the red zone will kill them in more games than just this last one.
16 Jets 0.06 1-2 14.2 (25) 13.3 (6)  It's not so much the defense that is holding this team back, or even the turnovers. The run attack should be the underlying strength of this team, and right now it looks more like a walk attack than anything else.
17 Vikings -0.12 1-2 15.5 (21) 13.7 (11)  Win at home: check. Win on the road: need Longwell to be kicking extra points instead of field goals.
18 Ravens -0.24 2-0 22.6 (14) 2.5 (23)  Getting to play Houston and Cleveland was a nice warm up. The real schedule begins on the road Monday night. First team to pass for 150 yards gets a cookie.
19 Falcons -0.31 2-1 21.6 (15) 2.3 (24)  If the Ravens schedule was a warm up, then Atlanta playing host to Detroit and Kansas City was an extended pre-season. We'll see if they learned anything while playing on the road at Tampa Bay earlier in the season.
20 Saints -0.37 1-2 14.4 (23) 9.9 (14)  Beating a dead horse alert! You don't have the type of defense that can handle your offense being one-dimensional. Bush catching passes out of the backfield isn't a run game, sorry. Figure it out.
21 Chargers -0.39 1-2 16.5 (18) 4.2 (17)  They're baaccckkk. Or are they? The run attack is still having problems, and most teams won't be giving them that many short field opportunities. Passing defense still needs some work too.
22 Bears -0.43 1-2 16.4 (19) 5.4 (19)  Not only does the Indianapolis win feel like it was in '07, it certainly doesn't look as cool either.
23 Colts -0.47 1-2 12.9 (26) 10.2 (13)  Is it really possible that this team is being out rushed by a 135 yards per game? That is a staggering statistic and if they don't fix it soon the rest of their season will be an ugly crawl to the finish.
24 Jaguars -0.58 1-2 14.4 (24) 5.4 (20)  They are showing some signs of life at least. Remember, their losses have come to 3-0 Tennessee and 3-0 Buffalo.
25 Raiders -0.7 1-2 16.2 (20) 2.5 (25)  They tried to prove us wrong by winning a game without being able to pass the football, and almost pulled it off. Almost doesn't get you very far in the NFL.
26 Seahawks -0.82 1-2 14.5 (22) 1.8 (26)  Why shouldn't Seattle be excited over its first win? They are giving up less than 90 rushing yards a game to their opponents, but are still allowing them to score more than 25 points a game in the process. Not hot.
27 Rams -1.14 0-3 3.4 (27) 1.4 (27)  Worst run attack in the league. Start with that.
28 Browns -1.18 0-3 3.2 (28) 1.3 (28)  At least you can say they have been tested. Only the Jaguars and their upcoming opponents have played against tougher schedules.
29 Bengals -1.22 0-3 2.9 (29) 1.1 (29)  Have to give them some credit for playing well on the road. The problem is they had their statistically best game and still lost.
30 Texans -1.26 0-2 2.5 (30) 1 (30)  The interceptions are giving opposing offenses way to good of field position to work with, especailly with how the run defense is struggling.
31 Lions -1.3 0-3 2.3 (31) 0.9 (31)  The competition is intense! Detroit only gave up 116 yards on the ground on Sunday, allowing the KC 'matador defense' to catch up on worst run defense in the league.
32 Chiefs -1.34 0-3 1.9 (32) 0.7 (32)  With Denver visiting this week there is a good chance the defense will still be allowing over 190 yards per game rushing through the first 4 weeks of the season. We went back 12 years before we gave up looking for teams that had done that. The only one we found was last year's Dolphins.

Pick Six Betting Details for NFL week 3

We had hyped up week 3 pre-season as a good week to bet on, and right before the Pick Six came out we downgraded it to a neutral week for betting. This is the strength of the dual ranking system, as it knows when volatility and the current NFL schedule are going to clash and make for some messy results. The week indeed was a tough one, but the Pick Six never wavered and pulled out a 4-2 record, moving it to 13-5 (72%) on the year. Here are the results for NFL week 3.

NFL Picks for Week 5 - Buy Now ($5.00)

Bet to make On odds of Probability of being correct Result Winnings Invested Net Winnings
ML - Green Bay to win 145 79.0% loss $0.00 $100.00 $100.00
ML - Baltimore to win -135 78.0% Win $174.07 $100.00 $74.07
ML - Minnesota to win -200 81.0% Win $150.00 $100.00 $50.00
ML - Atlanta to win -250 78.0% Win $140.00 $100.00 $40.00
AS - Green Bay to cover spread -110 82.0% loss $0.00 $100.00 $100.00
Over - OAK @ BUF -110 58.0% Win $190.91 $100.00 $90.91
$654.98 $600.00 $54.98

ROI for NFL week 3: 9.2%
ROI Year to Date: 24.9%

(ROI: Return on Investment)

Pick Six Betting Details for NFL week 2

Sweetness. When we saw the odds come out last Monday evening we knew our Pick Six for NFL week 2 was going to have a great chance at pulling in a profit. The public misconception on the Oakland and Tennessee games was blatant to our system and we made sure the Pick Six took advantage of it. The 3-0 result from those 2 games alone was enough to guarantee profit for the week.

Looking ahead to NFL week 3 we don't want to get overly excited over the results of this week. Normally week 3 is one of the better early season weeks to bet on, but as always we will have to see how the odds-makers and public view things before we will know for sure. We are working hard to get our picks out early on Tuesday this week, so that our Members can make full use of any early in the week odds. If you want to read up on odds and how public opinion can swing games, we suggest you read through the posts on our affiliated blog, 'A bettor wager'.

NFL Picks for Week 5 - Buy Now ($5.00)

Bet to make On odds of Probability of being correct Result Winnings Invested Net Winnings
ML - Oakland to win 160 88.0% Win $260.00 $100.00 $160.00
ML - Tennessee to win 100 91.0% Win $200.00 $100.00 $100.00
ML - Arizona to win -280 86.0% Win $135.71 $100.00 $35.71
ML - Denver to win -120 86.0% Win $183.33 $100.00 $83.33
AS - Oakland to cover spread -110 92.0% Win $190.91 $100.00 $90.91
Over - ATL @ TB -110 58.0% Loss $0.00 $100.00 $100.00
$969.96 $600.00 $369.96

ROI for NFL week 2: 61.7%
ROI Year to Date: 32.8%

(ROI: Return on Investment)

Pick Six Betting Details for NFL week 1

As we expected, week 1 was going to be a tough week to figure out. Overall on our 48 predictions we went a straight .500, 24-24. But the power of the system already shows up in the Pick Six, where we went a nice 4-2 and picked up profit to start the season. From here on out the picks will only get better as each team gets more games under their belt. We hope you have been doing your reading on how to make it a winning season in 2008! If not we suggest you look at A bettor wager and at our article NFL picks transformed into winning bets.

Bet to make On odds of Probability of being correct Result Winnings Invested Net Winnings
ML - Green Bay to win -135 80.0% Win $174.07 $100.00 $74.07
ML - Dallas to win -280 75.0% Win $135.71 $100.00 $35.71
ML - Philadelphia to win -425 80.0% Win $123.53 $100.00 $23.53
ML - Washington to win 180 60.0% Loss $0.00 $100.00 $100.00
AS - Green Bay to cover spread -110 60.0% Win $190.91 $100.00 $90.91
Under - HOU @ PIT -110 58.5% Loss $0.00 $100.00 $100.00
$624.23 $600.00 $24.23

ROI for NFL week 1: 4.0%
ROI Year to Date: 4.0%

(ROI: Return on Investment)