Can you be the victim of your schedule? Yes you can, and it is quite
likely that Tennessee will end up falling victim to their easy schedule,
and probably to a team that played a very tough schedule in the regular
season. One final point against Tennessee is that only 2 of the 24 teams
were averaging less than 170 passing yards per game going into week 10,
and the Titans are averaging only 165 yards in '08.
So it will be an all AFC North matchup in the AFC Championship?
That's right. We see Pittsburgh winning their division, but Baltimore
getting in the final word and knocking off their rivals at Heinz stadium
to return to the Super Bowl. After all the stats of this '08 team does
look pretty close to that of the '00 Super Bowl Champions:
- '00 Baltimore Ravens | W-L: 5-4 | 123 Rush YPG | 177 Pass YPG |
allowing 68 Rush YPG and 181 Pass YPG | Scoring margin: 4.7 PPG
- '08 Baltimore Ravens | W-L: 5-3 | 149 Rush YPG | 174 Pass YPG |
allowing 64 Rush YPG and 182 Pass YPG | Scoring margin: 4.8 PPG
NFC Champion 
In a reverse of the recent trend, the powerhouse conference this year
is the NFC. This makes it a little more difficult to sort out who will
be meeting Baltimore in the Super Bowl. We have already narrowed it down
to the NY Giants, Washington, Carolina, Tampa Bay, and Philadelphia. The
Eagles were labeled as a dark horse because their ITN CB was less than
.50, but they are even more of a dark horse than that. Philadelphia is
averaging only 97 ypg on the ground this year, and only 3 out of the 24
teams to play in the Super Bowl were averaging under 100 ypg. None of
those three teams had an ITN CB less than .85, and Philadelphia is
sitting at .43.
Washington has a similar mark against them, in that only 3 teams have
reached the Super Bowl since '96 while scoring less than 20 ppg. While
Tampa Bay doesn't have any glaring stats that would drop them from the
running, they don't have any that point in their favor either. In the
NFC it really comes down to two teams, the NY Giants and the Carolina
Panthers.
Of all the teams we have talked about, New York looks the most
Super-Bowl-esque. 14 of the 24 teams to reach the big game were scoring
at a clip of greater than 25 ppg ('08 NY is scoring 28) and a whopping 7
of the previous 12 Super Bowl winners were ranked 3rd or better in the
ITN CB that year (NY is ranked 2nd). Despite all those stats and that
New York is the defending champion, there are stronger marks pointing to
Carolina.
Back in week 5, the Panthers had the ITN CB #1 ranking, and were only
the 8th team since '96 to be ranked #1 and be in the top five in both
Real Points and Win Grade. Of those 7 previous teams, 4 of them went to
the Super Bowl. That gave Carolina a 57% chance of hitting Super Bowl
magic. They are still on pace to get there too, as all four of those
teams that went were still ranked in the ITN CB top 5 by week ten, just
as Carolina is. Almost as important as that is home field advantage in
the playoffs, especially in the NFC (in the AFC only 5 of the last 12
teams with home field advantage in the AFC championship game have moved
on to the Super Bowl). In the NFC, 7 of the last 12 teams to be playing
at home in the NFC championship game have reached the big game.
If you look at the schedule New York has to face and then the
schedule Carolina is up against, it is easy to give Carolina much better
odds of obtaining the number one seed in the NFC. Carolina plays OAK,
DET, GB, and NO in the second half of the season, all of which are .500
or worse. New York on the other hand has only one game against .500
competition, MIN on the road in week 17. Every other opponent till then
is currently above .500. Interestingly enough, New York hosts Carolina
in week 16, which regardless of the outcome will help the Panthers. If
they lose and lose the #1 seed, they will at least have the experience
of playing in New York once that year. The same cannot be said if
Carolina wins the regular season matchup.
Before the 2008 season began, there probably wasn't a person on the
planet that had a matchup of the Baltimore Ravens vs. the Carolina
Panthers in Super Bowl XLIII, including us. After week 4 was completed
though, we had some pretty strong indications that these two teams could
make it to Tampa, and both teams are still looking strong halfway
through the season. How can we change our picks now?
|
RK |
Team |
ITN - CB |
Record |
WG |
RP |
Notes |
| 1 |
 |
1.90 |
8-0 |
62.6 (1) |
156.7 (4) |
Good teams
find ways to win games even when they don't play well, and
that's exactly what Tennessee did against Green Bay. Their
remaining schedule isn't killer, but it is tough enough to
squash any early talk of running the table. Offense #10 |
Defense #4 | Turnovers +10 | Chance of going to Super Bowl: 28% |
| 2 |
 |
1.81 |
7-1 |
56.2 (2) |
173.6 (2) |
The win
over Dallas puts them in command of the NFC East. They travel to
Philadelphia next week, where a win there would give them a
stranglehold over the division lead. As we keep mentioning, the
NY Giants remaining schedule is brutal; if they finish 12-4 or
better we will be very impressed. Offense #1 | Defense #3 |
Turnovers +6 | Chance of going to Super Bowl: 38% |
| 3 |
 |
1.63 |
6-2 |
41.9 (5) |
212.4 (1) |
Pittsburgh finally gets one over the NFC East, and was able to
it without their starting QB for half the game. Despite all the
injuries this season Pittsburgh is winning games against tough
opponents, which says a lot about Tomlin and the team chemistry.
Offense #24 | Defense #1 | Turnovers +1 | Chance of going to
Super Bowl: 28% |
| 4 |
 |
1.41 |
6-3 |
55.6 (3) |
152.8 (5) |
The
offense got overpowered by Pittsburgh's defense, and both
Campbell and Portis struggled. Two of their three losses have
now come at home, something Washington will need to fix because
taking advantage of home games will be a must to make the
playoffs in the NFC this year. Offense #17 | Defense #5 |
Turnovers +1 | Chance of going to Super Bowl: 3% |
| 5 |
 |
0.90 |
6-2 |
41.9 (6) |
139.8 (6) |
Coming off their bye week the Carolina Injury report is free of
names, which will help them take care of the two must win games
in front of them. In order to win divisions and get bye's in the
playoffs, teams cannot allow easy wins to escape their grasps.
Offense #20 | Defense #8 | Turnovers +1 | Chance of going to
Super Bowl: 50% |
| 6 |
 |
0.90 |
6-3 |
40.9 (7) |
160.5 (3) |
Falling behind early in the game was ugly. Coming back from a 21
point deficit was impressive. Still, we have to wonder how
strong this team is on both sides of the ball, and we will have
to wait till they return from their bye week to play Minnesota
to find out more. Offense #15 | Defense #6 | Turnovers +0 |
Chance of going to Super Bowl: 5% |
| 7 |
 |
0.44 |
5-3 |
33.4 (16) |
126.8 (9) |
Big road
win last week over division rival Buffalo puts them in a three
way tie for the lead in the AFC East. What is the scariest thing
about the NY Jets? They are two games above .500 while having
thrown more interceptions than any other team in the league. If
Favre can tone down the picks, the NY Jets will be very
difficult to beat. Offense #14 - Defense #16 - Turnovers -4 -
Chance of going to Super Bowl: 2% |
| 8 |
 |
0.44 |
5-3 |
40.6 (8) |
97.5 (15) |
It's easy
to look at the box score against Seattle and think Philly didn't
really need Westbrook, and that it was McNabb that got the job
done. The box score doesn't show that the reason why McNabb had
a successful day was because Seattle was so focused on stopping
Westbrook. Can the offense do the same against the NY Giants?
Offense #4 | Defense #7 | Turnovers +6 | Chance of going to
Super Bowl: 2% |
| 9 |
 |
0.41 |
5-3 |
39.5 (9) |
99.4 (14) |
While the defense is the heart and foundation of the team,
Flacco's play holds the key to getting W's. In Baltimore's three
losses: 5 interceptions and 1 lost fumble. In their five wins: 2
interceptions and 0 lost fumbles. Offense #16 | Defense #2 |
Turnovers -2 | Chance of going to Super Bowl: 41% |
|
10 |
 |
0.39 |
5-3 |
43.8 (4) |
79.7 (21) |
Chicago may have the lead in the NFC North at the moment, but
their long list of injuries (including starting QB Orton) may
prevent them from holding it for long. They escaped with a win
against Detroit, but against almost any other team in the NFL
that likely wouldn't be the case. Offense #7 | Defense #19 |
Turnovers +6 | Chance of going to Super Bowl: 1% |
|
11 |
 |
0.37 |
4-4 |
35.1 (12) |
112.7 (11) |
At .500 and just a game out of the lead in
the AFC East, talk of the playoffs surrounds Miami-land. Their
remaining schedule warrants the talk with home games against
SEA, OAK, and SF.
If they can improve on defense and
continue to win the turnover battle they will be in the thick of
things come December. Offense #18 | Defense #17 | Turnovers +9 |
Chance of going to Super Bowl: 0% |
|
12 |
 |
0.33 |
5-3 |
37 (10) |
101 (13) |
Arizona could lock up the NFC West as early as week 12. If
Hightower is as good as he looked last Sunday they may have
found the balance they need on offense to be a real playoff
threat. With them playing in such a weak division, the rest of
the NFC should be worried about whether they might have to
travel out West come January. Offense #2 | Defense #13 |
Turnovers +1 | Chance of going to Super Bowl: less than 1% |
|
13 |
 |
0.32 |
5-3 |
36.2 (11) |
102.8 (12) |
Atlanta is probably better than 13th, but the competition in the
NFC is quite stiff, especially in their division. The play on
the road by QB Ryan and by the run defense had been holding the
team back, but both looked significantly better on Sunday at
Oakland. Offense #5 | Defense #11 | Turnovers +1 | Chance of
going to Super Bowl: 1% |
|
14 |
 |
0.22 |
5-4 |
29.4 (19) |
135.7 (7) |
It's hard
to sum up the season as anything but disappointing so far. Sure
the injuries have hurt, but it goes beyond that for Dallas. They
just haven't been playing like a Super Bowl contender, even when
healthy. Backup QB's have been taking heat for turnovers, but we
want to remind everyone Romo threw a pick in each of his first
five games. Offense #12 | Defense #12 | Turnovers -6 | Chance of
going to Super Bowl: less than 1% |
|
15 |
 |
0.08 |
5-3 |
34.5 (15) |
85.7 (17) |
A tough
loss last week for New England especially considering the
mistakes they made and opportunities they squandered. Being
productive in the red zone has not been easy for them, and it is
a measure as to how much they miss Brady at QB. Still the
running game is showing a lot promise for the second half of the
season. Offense #19 | Defense #10 | Turnovers +1 | Chance of
going to Super Bowl: less than 1% |
|
16 |
 |
0.04 |
5-3 |
34.9 (13) |
80.1 (20) |
Buffalo is
definitely reeling, and is now 0-2 in the AFC East. Turnovers on
offense are more to blame than anything the defense has done.
With injuries starting to pile up Buffalo's will and team
chemistry will be tested in the second half of the season.
Offense #21 | Defense #9 | Turnovers -5 | Chance of going to
Super Bowl: 0% |
|
17 |
 |
0.01 |
4-4 |
25.9 (21) |
113.5 (10) |
The team
is definitely playing better now they have a measure of health
back in them. If they can continue to heal, the weakness of the
AFC should allow them to hang in the hunt for the #6 seed in the
playoffs. Offense #25 | Defense #15 | Turnovers +2 | Chance of
going to Super Bowl: 0% |
|
18 |
 |
-0.13 |
2-6 |
18.6 (27) |
128.8 (8) |
St. Louis
came crashing back to earth against Arizona, and squashed any
talk of them getting back into the race for the NFC West. They
have certainly improved since Haslett took over, but the offense
is still struggling to be consistent. Offense #31 | Defense #31
| Turnovers +1 | Chance of going to Super Bowl: 0% |
|
19 |
 |
-0.16 |
4-4 |
29.8 (17) |
80.6 (19) |
Even
though they are only a game back of the lead in the NFC North,
the first half of the season is a disappointment to many
Minnesota fans. It seems the team has a hard time getting all
its parts to show up for a game. The have a strong run defense
and rush attack that they can lean on if they improve their team
cohesion in the second half. Offense #13 | Defense #14 |
Turnovers -2 | Chance of going to Super Bowl: 0% |
|
20 |
 |
-0.26 |
4-4 |
34.6 (14) |
50.7 (25) |
Although the defense gave up some yards, they played fantastic
in the red zone. If that is a sign of things to come Green Bay
has the pieces on offense to win their division. If they can
stay moderately healthy and get their run attack to show up, we
will be watching them play come January. Offense #11 | Defense
#18 | Turnovers +4 | Chance of going to Super Bowl: 0% |
|
21 |
 |
-0.31 |
4-4 |
29.7 (18) |
65.8 (24) |
The level
of imbalance in New Orleans is almost mystifying. They have the
number one rated passing offense, but the twenty-ninth rated
rushing offense. They are sixth in the league in scoring
offense, but are twenty-second in defensive scoring. With
numbers like that it is no wonder they are 4-4. Offense #3 |
Defense #24 | Turnovers -2 | Chance of going to Super Bowl: 0% |
|
22 |
 |
-0.32 |
4-4 |
24.4 (23) |
86 (16) |
Panicking yet? Actually Denver fans have probably moved past
panic and are now resigned to the fact that their team just
isn't that good. Like many teams injuries are piling up, and the
offense seems to want to match the number of injuries with
turnovers. Almost unbelievably, they are still division leaders.
Offense #9 | Defense #29 | Turnovers -11 | Chance of going to
Super Bowl: 0% |
|
23 |
 |
-0.39 |
3-5 |
23.6 (24) |
82.1 (18) |
We have to
agree its weird timing to decide to go with Quinn. Cleveland has
been close to staying in competition for a playoff spot, but has
let a few games slip by them. They will have to run the table at
home to stay in the hunt, as their remaining road schedule is
nasty. Offense #28 | Defense #20 | Turnovers +4 | Chance of
going to Super Bowl: 0% |
|
24 |
 |
-0.44 |
3-5 |
26 (20) |
68.3 (22) |
The loss
to previously winless Cincinnati pretty much seals the deal on
Jacksonville missing the playoffs. The team has played ho-hum
all season, and their stats definitely reflect the production on
the field. With only two sub .500 teams remaining on their
schedule, Jacksonville will have its work cut out to finish
better than 8-8. Offense #23 | Defense #21 | Turnovers +2 |
Chance of going to Super Bowl: 0% |
|
25 |
 |
-0.45 |
3-5 |
25.8 (22) |
67.5 (23) |
Halfway through the season and San Diego has the worst pass
defense in the league and the run attack is still averaging
under 100 yards per game. What can save them? How about the fact
that the three other teams in their division are ranked #22,
#27, and #30? If they do manage to make the playoffs there are
no signs of them being competitive. Offense #8 | Defense #27 |
Turnovers -1 | Chance of going to Super Bowl: 0% |
|
26 |
 |
-0.97 |
3-5 |
22.4 (25) |
28.6 (27) |
No
surprise that Houston struggled at Minnesota last week. Sure
they had won 3 in a row, most teams in the league would have won
3 straight against the same competition, and more importantly
over those 3 wins they didn't solve their turnover problems. If
it wasn't clear before, it certainly is now they need Schaub in
the lineup to win games. Offense #6 | Defense #23 | Turnovers -8
| Chance of going to Super Bowl: 0% |
|
27 |
 |
-1.02 |
2-6 |
20.6 (26) |
30.5 (26) |
Was that
really the same Oakland team that knocked off the NY Jets in
overtime on the field against Atlanta? The run defense is
playing very shoddy and is starting to adversely affect the
secondary. Even more troublesome than that is the pass offense,
which has struggled all year. Offense #30 | Defense #26 |
Turnovers +1 | Chance of going to Super Bowl: 0% |
|
28 |
 |
-1.18 |
2-6 |
18.1 (29) |
24.3 (28) |
A lot of
people had faith in Seattle defending their home turf against
Philadelphia last week, and that faith got abused. We doubt
anyone will be siding with Seattle until they figure out what a
forward pass is. Offense #26 | Defense #28 | Turnovers -3 |
Chance of going to Super Bowl: 0% |
|
29 |
 |
-1.26 |
2-6 |
18.5 (28) |
15.1 (30) |
How are
things going in San Francisco? Fans are talking about the '09
draft and whether or not Alex Smith will play for the team in
'10. Hill will be starting this week against Arizona, and as
long as he throws the ball to the wrong team fewer than every
third pass attempt he will considered as a step in the right
direction. Offense #22 | Defense #25 | Turnovers -10 | Chance of
going to Super Bowl: 0% |
|
30 |
 |
-1.45 |
1-7 |
13.8 (30) |
14.4 (31) |
Surprisingly fans in KC aren't that upset about the loss; they
actually seem a little optimistic. Maybe they knew more than
anyone what was coming in that game. There isn't much to expect
from Kansas City in the second half as this season has already
been designated a rebuilding year. Offense #27 | Defense #30 |
Turnovers +7 | Chance of going to Super Bowl: 0% |
|
31 |
 |
-1.47 |
1-8 |
13.5 (31) |
16 (29) |
The worst
offense in the NFL finally gave its defense a chance to win a
game for them, and they came through. It will take more solid
run performances from the offense in order to produce more wins,
as it has been clear up to this point that the aerial attack
cannot counted on. Offense #32 | Defense #22 | Turnovers -7 |
Chance of going to Super Bowl: 0% |
|
32 |
 |
-1.75 |
0-8 |
3.2 (32) |
1.3 (32) |
We have to
imagine next week will be Detroit's best shot at winning a game
this season. Signing Culpepper is a good idea, but it won't help
much. The defense is the real reason this team is in disarray.
Our favorite Detroit stat update: teams that have defeated the
Lions are now 1-6 in their following game. Next up to bat is
Chicago (who has already fell victim once) playing host to
Tennessee. Offense #29 | Defense #32 | Turnovers -3 | Chance of
going to Super Bowl: 0% |
|
Bet to make |
On
odds of |
Probability of being correct |
Result |
Winnings |
Invested |
Net
Winnings |
| ML -
Baltimore to win |
100 |
87.0% |
loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
| ML -
Buffalo to win |
120 |
81.0% |
loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
| ML - San
Francisco to win |
150 |
79.0% |
loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
| ML -
Miami to win |
210 |
77.0% |
Win |
$310.00 |
$100.00 |
$210.00 |
| AS - NY
Giants to cover spread |
-110 |
63.0% |
Win |
$190.91 |
$100.00 |
$90.91 |
| Under -
IND @ HOU |
-110 |
64.0% |
loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
|
|
|
|
$500.91 |
$600.00 |
$99.09 |
|
Bet to make |
On
odds of |
Probability of being correct |
Result |
Winnings |
Invested |
Net
Winnings |
| ML -
Carolina to win |
-300 |
89.0% |
Win |
$133.33 |
$100.00 |
$33.33 |
| ML - NY
Jets to win |
-115 |
81.0% |
Win |
$186.96 |
$100.00 |
$86.96 |
| ML -
Tennessee to win |
-170 |
80.0% |
Win |
$158.82 |
$100.00 |
$58.82 |
| ML -
Cleveland to win |
100 |
57.0% |
Win |
$200.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
| AS -
Oakland to cover spread |
-110 |
71.0% |
Loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
| Under -
ARI @ NYJ |
-110 |
60.0% |
Loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
|
|
|
|
$679.11 |
$600.00 |
$79.11 |
We had hyped up week 3 pre-season as a good week to bet on, and right
before the Pick Six came out we downgraded it to a neutral week for
betting. This is the strength of the dual ranking system, as it knows
when volatility and the current NFL schedule are going to clash and make
for some messy results. The week indeed was a tough one, but the Pick
Six never wavered and pulled out a 4-2 record, moving it to 13-5 (72%)
on the year. Here are the results for NFL week 3.
|
Bet to make |
On
odds of |
Probability of being correct |
Result |
Winnings |
Invested |
Net
Winnings |
| ML -
Green Bay to win |
145 |
79.0% |
loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
| ML -
Baltimore to win |
-135 |
78.0% |
Win |
$174.07 |
$100.00 |
$74.07 |
| ML -
Minnesota to win |
-200 |
81.0% |
Win |
$150.00 |
$100.00 |
$50.00 |
| ML -
Atlanta to win |
-250 |
78.0% |
Win |
$140.00 |
$100.00 |
$40.00 |
| AS -
Green Bay to cover spread |
-110 |
82.0% |
loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
| Over -
OAK @ BUF |
-110 |
58.0% |
Win |
$190.91 |
$100.00 |
$90.91 |
|
|
|
|
$654.98 |
$600.00 |
$54.98 |
Sweetness. When we saw the odds come out last Monday evening we knew
our Pick Six for NFL week 2 was going to have a great chance at pulling
in a profit. The public misconception on the Oakland and Tennessee games
was blatant to our system and we made sure the Pick Six took advantage
of it. The 3-0 result from those 2 games alone was enough to guarantee
profit for the week.
Looking ahead to NFL week 3 we don't want to get overly excited over
the results of this week. Normally week 3 is one of the better early
season weeks to bet on, but as always we will have to see how the
odds-makers and public view things before we will know for sure. We are
working hard to get our picks out early on Tuesday this week, so that
our Members can make full use of any early in the week odds. If you want
to read up on odds and how public opinion can swing games, we suggest
you read through the posts on our affiliated blog,
'A bettor wager'.
|
Bet to make |
On
odds of |
Probability of being correct |
Result |
Winnings |
Invested |
Net
Winnings |
| ML -
Oakland to win |
160 |
88.0% |
Win |
$260.00 |
$100.00 |
$160.00 |
| ML -
Tennessee to win |
100 |
91.0% |
Win |
$200.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
| ML -
Arizona to win |
-280 |
86.0% |
Win |
$135.71 |
$100.00 |
$35.71 |
| ML -
Denver to win |
-120 |
86.0% |
Win |
$183.33 |
$100.00 |
$83.33 |
| AS -
Oakland to cover spread |
-110 |
92.0% |
Win |
$190.91 |
$100.00 |
$90.91 |
| Over -
ATL @ TB |
-110 |
58.0% |
Loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
|
|
|
|
$969.96 |
$600.00 |
$369.96 |
As we expected, week 1 was going to be a tough week to figure out.
Overall on our 48 predictions we went a straight .500, 24-24. But the
power of the system already shows up in the Pick Six, where we went a
nice 4-2 and picked up profit to start the season. From here on out the
picks will only get better as each team gets more games under their
belt. We hope you have been doing your reading on how to make it a
winning season in 2008! If not we suggest you look at
A bettor wager and at our
article
NFL picks transformed into winning
bets.
|
Bet to make |
On
odds of |
Probability of being correct |
Result |
Winnings |
Invested |
Net
Winnings |
|
ML - Green Bay to win |
-135 |
80.0% |
Win |
$174.07 |
$100.00 |
$74.07 |
|
ML - Dallas to win |
-280 |
75.0% |
Win |
$135.71 |
$100.00 |
$35.71 |
|
ML - Philadelphia to win |
-425 |
80.0% |
Win |
$123.53 |
$100.00 |
$23.53 |
|
ML - Washington to win |
180 |
60.0% |
Loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
|
AS - Green Bay to cover spread |
-110 |
60.0% |
Win |
$190.91 |
$100.00 |
$90.91 |
|
Under - HOU @ PIT |
-110 |
58.5% |
Loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
|
|
|
|
$624.23 |
$600.00 |
$24.23 |